Professional trappers don't catch fast-breeding and destructive feral
pigs using hunting dogs and guns, or in little traps one or two at a
time. The wily pigs quickly learn to evade humans after such fleeting
contacts. So how do the pros trap entire feral pig herds, eliminating
them all, from granddads to piglets, in one go? They feed them, most
generously. They kill them with kindness.
First, in a clearing in the woods, the trappers build an enclosure
about twenty feet on a side and four feet high, made of stout wire
fencing. There is an opening on each of the four sides of the pen. The
pen is loaded with corn and other pig favorites. At first, the suspicious
hog honchos will send in a few of the little ones as scouts. The scouts
come and go at will, eating to their piggy satisfaction, until eventually
suspicions die and they are joined by every other member of the herd
right up the chain of command. The pigs soon come to believe that if
nothing bad has happened to them after entering the strange wire enclosure
full of corn, then nothing bad will ever happen. Their "normalcy
bias" kicks in very quickly.
Soon, the pigs can't imagine any other life. Rooting for tubers?
An unpleasant task of the forgotten past. Every night the herd eagerly
trots toward the free corn in the pen, and they all fail to notice when
one of the openings has been closed off with another panel of wire
fencing during the day. Pigs are often said to be as smart as dogs, but
neither can count to four. Nor are the closings of the second or third
openings much noticed. Finally, all that remains for the trapper to do
is to install a powerful spring-driven trap door above the last opening.
The entire tribe of formerly wary feral hogs once again enters the pen,
and with a metallic clang their miraculous corn nirvana turns into a
death trap.
The moral of the story: If it looks too good to be true, it probably
is. Don't go inside the "free corn" pen, not even when all the doors
are open. Free food is as dangerous as the sirens' song to ancient
mariners. It is all too easy to get used to being fed, and then to miss
the exits closing one at a time.
2. The Turkeys and Farmer Brown
Pigs are Einsteins compared to domesticated turkeys. These turkeys
are so stupid that care must be taken to prevent them from killing
themselves by accident. For example, if incorrectly stimulated, they
might stampede into a corner of a feeding lot and trample many of
their brethren to death in their urgency to follow the herd.
If turkeys think at all, they think of Farmer Brown as "the food
man" or "the food god." So you can imagine their simple and unreserved
joy at seeing the food man arriving to dispense the daily
manna. For 364 straight days they believe they are living in turkey
heaven, and they worship the food man, until on day 365 he unexpectedly
takes an ax to their necks. (Hat tip to Nassim Nicholas Taleb
and his seminal book, "The Black Swan" If you have not yet read it,
you are way behind the learning curve. It's waiting for you at your
local public library.)
The moral of the story: If somebody is feeding you every day and
asking for nothing in return, give an occasional thought to his motives
and his possible end plans. Not everybody that feeds you loves you.
The normalcy bias can kill you.
3. The Buffalo Jump
Native American Indians hunted on foot before the arrival of Spanish
horses in North America. Bows and arrows and spears were not
showstoppers against stampeding herds of bison, each weighing up
to a ton. The Indians understood bison much better than the bison
understood the Indians, however, and so the bison repeatedly failed
to discern that all the pesky humans waving flags and setting grass
fires were funneling them into a narrow draw and then toward a high
cliff, with the squaws and children waiting down below to commence
the butchery.
The moral of the story: If you are being stampeded and funneled,
it might be toward disaster, not away from it. Take any exit and go
another direction. Read about the then-Greek city of Smyrna in 1922
to see a human Buffalo Jump in action.
4. The Lemmings
The lemmings we are interested in are the small furry rodents that live
on islands around Norway. For most of history, their mass charges
into the frigid waters were seen as some kind of group suicide. Today,
they’re understood to be the result of the little rodent's rapid gestation
period kicking into high gear during rare periods of abundance of
seed grasses sprouting madly during particularly mild arctic summers.
In a matter of months the lemming population explodes, but
eventually every last seed is eaten, and not another seed will appear
until after the passing of the long arctic winter. The starving rodents
packing the small islands can either die in place or undertake a desperate
swim to greener pastures on other islands beckoning in the
distance.
The moral of the story: There doesn't need to be a pig trapper or
a turkey farmer in the equation to cause a mass die-off event; nature
can do it all on her own. And nature doesn't care about your schedule,
or your personal problems.
5. The Land Crab Massacre
One day in Puerto Rico a platoon of Navy SEALs drove a few trucks
and vans to an isolated rifle range way out in some swampy corner of
the Roosevelt Roads Naval Base, now sadly closed. A few miles of
gravel road paralleled the Caribbean shore, with mangrove trees close
on both sides of the narrow track. You had to access this rifle range
at certain times during the daily tidal cycle, or the road might be under
water. The frogmen spent the day shooting guns and blowing things
up, then at sunset packed up the trucks for the quick run back to their
beloved NavSpecWar Det Caribbean.
Truck headlights illuminated a moving sheet of land crabs, migrating
from the ocean toward the land for the night. Land crabs have
a body about the size of a fist, and one claw as big as a Maine lobster's.
They were so tightly packed that you could not toss a hat into
their midst without hitting two or three: there were a near solid mass
of them covering a mile of gravel road and the mangrove swamps on
both sides. All the SEALs could do was drive over them in their
government trucks, pulverizing thousands of them, maybe millions,
leaving two wide swaths of crushed crabs, crackling and squishing
beneath our tires for a mile.
On the return trip to the range the next day, not a sign remained
of the land crab holocaust. The smashed crustaceans had immediately
been devoured by their erstwhile kin, who were probably happy that
the hard work of shell-cracking had already been done by Goodyear
tires. A mile-long crab massacre was followed by a cannibal feast that
left no trace, overnight.
The moral of the story: Don't be caught in the middle of a mass
migration where you have no room to maneuver independently. Any
outside force, or your neighbors, can smite you at will. Like Desert
Storm's "Highway of Death," refugee columns attract warbird attention
the way that honey attracts flies. History is full of refugee
columns being strafed, on purpose or through mis-identification. Or
like the bison, refugee columns can be herded into traps, and the
individual refugee can do nothing to prevent it. This is a paradoxical
case where the normally presumed “safety in numbers” is a deadly
betrayer instead of a savior. Given a choice, going it alone beats The
Buffalo Jump every time, but it’s very hard to bolt from the herd.
6. The Rat Flood
This occurs in northeastern India and parts of Burma. Only in the last
century was this bizarre cycle of human famine following unexplained
super plagues of rats finally understood. It turns out that
forests of a certain bamboo species go into a periodic explosion of
fruiting, producing seed nuts on a 48-year cycle, a trick of nature that
had been missed until the middle of the 20th century. Intrigued by the
half-century cycle of human famines reported in 1862, 1911, and
1959, modern scientists finally noticed the link between the famines
and the bamboo tree cycle. By 2006, the next time the bamboo began
to fruit, they were on hand to observe the complete phenomenon.
The superabundance of nuts every 48 years leads to an explosion
in the population of Asian black rats, which live in the thick bamboo
forests. Because of their rapid breeding cycle, the number of rats per
acre shoots up to astronomical levels, but eventually the entire mega97
crop of nuts is consumed, and a lemming-like mass starvation event
follows.
Millions of starving rats break out from the forests in what the
local people call the Rat Flood. The onrushing solid tide of scurrying
rats destroys entire crops in the ground and attack unprotected
granaries, leading to an immediate human famine. Millions of dying,
dead and decaying rats add to the misery by polluting streams and
causing other intensely nasty sanitary problems. A once-every-48-
years bamboo nut super-fruiting leads to millions of rats and then to
human famine.
The moral of the story: If subtle connections are missed, a radical
new situation may at first wrongly be considered a Black Swan Event.
But sometimes the Black Swans can be seen in advance, if seemingly
unconnected links and mechanisms are properly understood. And if
you’re not sure what a Black Swan Event is, you definitely need to
read Taleb’s book.
7. Hippos and Crocodiles
Certain stretches of African rivers dry up from time to time, stranding
all the water-dependent creatures in a new desert-scape dotted with
evaporating ox-bow lakes. During the normal times of plentiful
water, hippos and crocs are the masters of the riverine environment.
Lions and elephants interface with them at the edges, but pose no
challenge to the undisputed lords of the river.
That is, until the water level drops during a severe drought cycle,
and the last stagnant ponds dry to cracked mud. Then the crocs and
hippos, already starving and dehydrated, must bolt overland to
discover another pond or river extension. Few of them moving crosscountry
in the desert heat live to see another waterhole. Their
overland fatality rate is lemming-like, as lions, hyenas and vultures
swarm in when they finally drop to the earth.
The moral of the story: Don't be a hippo if your stretch of river
might dry up. Be adaptable to many environments, not just the master
of one that might prove to be impermanent or vulnerable to outside
impact. Better yet, be a bird, able to fly away to a safe location as
conditions on the ground change for the worse. Always have an agile
mobility plan—or two or three.
8. Hungry Horses
If you read a lot, you will run across these stories a few times a year.
As a recurring phenomenon it's not as well known as some of the
others, but it happens often enough to merit attention. Do an internet
search on starving horses, and you will find many such sad stories.
Typically, a utility company repairman, meter reader, contractor or
salesman will visit a remote ranch or farm and be horrified at the sight
of dozens or more starving horses or cows. There may even be dead
livestock on the ground. The witness informs the sheriff, who comes
out and arrests the land owner for animal cruelty and other charges.
The land owner will usually end up doing prison time, often for
what he believes was no crime. He was merely doing the best he
could, but times were hard. He had lost his job or been injured, but
bottom line, he couldn't afford trips to the feed store. They were just
plain hungry times, they were all hungry, but the livestock would fatten
up again just as soon as he got enough money for the feed, or the
drought ended and greened up the fields. And it’s going to rain any
day now.
This sad dynamic recalls Confederate Major Henry Wirz, the
commander of the open-air POW camp at Andersonville, Georgia.
Everybody was hungry, civilian, military and prisoner. They were
hungry times. There was no food to give the detainees. Nobody had
a plan for the Union POWs, except to corral them in a given location.
In the year before April 1865, nearly one-third of the 45,000 Union
prisoners died. Wirz was hanged in Washington late in 1865, after
one of the first American war-crime trials, yet to this day many
believe he got a raw deal. After all, his apologists say, he was doing
the best he could under the terrible circumstances.
The moral of the story: The guy who is starving you may sincerely
be trying to feed you, but his best efforts might not be enough.
In the end, if you are penned in, you can be killed by simple starvation
and neglect, requiring no directly malign intention by your captors.
Starvation just happens naturally when insufficient food is coming
into the enclosure.
9. The Crazy Cat Lady
When the stink of the crazy cat lady's house sufficiently annoys the
neighborhood, she is either found inside dead, or if she is still alive
she must be taken away to the crazy old people's home. After the
surviving starved cats are taken away by folks in hazmat suits, her
house will often be burned down to prevent the spread of disease.
Most of the rescued cats are too far gone and must be euthanized at
the animal shelter.
Yet her motives were perfectly pure! The crazy old lady truly
loved her pets. She could not bear to imagine them out in the cold
rain, hungry and alone, so she invited them inside. Imagine that you
are the fifth or sixth cat adopted into her warm and dry house. An old
stray would consider himself to have landed in cat paradise. Soft rugs,
plentiful food, and a kind human hand await inside. Purrr-fect.
It's a great deal even if you are the tenth cat invited inside, but not
so great when you are the two hundredth and the inside population is
breeding unchecked. The crazy old cat lady, in spite of her very good
intentions, ends up presiding over the feline version of Auschwitz, a
true death machine, killing her beloved cats slowly by starvation,
dehydration, and disease.
The moral of the story: Good intentions don't mean squat if you
trap other living beings inside an enclosure and then you can't feed
them. The holocaust that results is still on you. Your frequently
expressed good intentions about your trapped population will not be
accepted. "I was doing my best to help them" will ring as hollow a
defense as "I was just following orders." North Korea comes to mind
as a very large enclosure.
10. The Grasshopper and the Locust
Grasshoppers are the same creature as locusts, but as population
density and crowding increase, the small green insects undergo a
morphological change caused by increasing tactile stimulation that
leads to new hormonal releases. Little Jiminy Cricket will more than
double in size, take on a darkened and armored appearance, and then
develop effective flying wings. The morphing locusts will breed even
more often, in preparation for their famous swarming behavior.
The tiny grasshoppers, instead of accepting the fate of other
overpopulated, starving species, turn into warlike invaders and take
wing to go in search of greener pastures, leaving famine and death in
their wake. An emergency breakout plan is part of their DNA.
The moral of the story: Soft and timid little creatures can turn
fearsome and go on the warpath if their very survival is at stake. Even
a weak and normally helpless neighbor can become a danger if his
survival is at stake, especially if he joins a gang where he benefits
from strength in numbers.
Larger Lessons
If somebody else is feeding you—even if you entered the community
or the building of your own free will, even if all the doors and gates
are currently open or unlocked—you may already be living in your
future prison. All it takes is a change in management to turn your
Holiday Inn into San Quentin. Like the feral pigs, you might find that
the exits are all sealed off, and the free food was meant only to lure
you in and fatten you for slaughter.
If you are kept in an enclosure, even if you are currently being
fed with food brought in from outside, you are living at the mercy of
the status quo. The benevolent dictator who satisfies your needs may
be replaced overnight by Caligula or Stalin. Your Holiday Inn might
be sold to or taken over by the next Nazi SS.
Or authority might be abdicated entirely, leaving the prisoners
starving in their pens and cells; think Baghdad Zoo after the 2003
American invasion. A power vacuum, such as occurs when the crazy
cat lady becomes infirm, can be as deadly to a trapped population as
the turkey farmer and the pig hunter are to their own deliberate target
populations.
Creatures that are able to flee starvation will do so. If presented
with an impossible barrier, they might attempt a lemming-like swim,
or head across desert terrain like hippos fleeing the last dried-up pond.
But they will try. They will not starve in place.
Or starving millions may break out and appear like a sudden
refugee tidal wave, as is the case with the Rat Flood in India. Or the
millions might turn warlike and break out violently like locusts, bent
on temporary conquest and laying waste to the land in their search for
sustenance. But few creatures will starve to death quietly in their
dens. Social ecologists will ignore this lesson at their peril.
Most of these parables involve a densely packed population that
undergoes a cutoff in their food supply that is too rapid to permit them
an adjustment period. The more densely packed the population, the
more likely that when their food is abruptly cut off, they will attempt
to break out in search of new food sources.
Urban areas in the United States and other countries present many
risks similar to some of the parables cited above. America has
somehow evolved a system for artificially maintaining the lives of
millions inside open-air prisons, with free food dispensed to the
voluntarily semi-incarcerated. It is all too easy to grow dependent on
free food, as the feral pigs might attest. Turkeys don't know any
better, being born in captivity, but the same fate awaits them at the
end of the free-food line.
Today, we have become a nation of slaves.
One group is made up of the wage-slaves, basically working for the
government so that politicians can dispense taxed largesse to their pet
interest groups in return for their votes. Fifty million Americans are
currently enslaved on the Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) food stamp
plantation. The masters of both the producers and the moochers
are the looters “employed” in the government sector, robbing Peter to
buy Paul's vote in order to raise taxes on Peter yet again. Combined,
the looters and the moochers will always outnumber the producers,
until some population-altering event disrupts the status quo. (Hat tip
to Neil Boortz for his looters, producers, and moochers trichotomy.)
The urban population density is obviously high, with no possibility
of providing its own food through local agriculture. In the event
of a food supply disruption, such as a breakdown of the EBT system,
it’s very likely that a large part of the urban population will break out
in search of food, rather than quietly starving in place after the supermarkets
and other nearby food sources are looted.
Like restarting a diesel engine with an air-locked fuel line, getting
the food supply system of a city running again cannot be done by
turning a key and stomping on the accelerator. The diesel engine airlock
must be tediously purged and the injectors bled. This takes time,
and there is no shortcut method, no matter your state of desperation
to get the engine running.
The modern “just in time” food supply system and our lack of
old-fashioned food warehouses will worsen the “diesel air-lock” in
the broken food supply. It will be extremely tricky to restart the food
supply conveyor into an out-of-control city in the middle of deadly
food riots. The hungry population may break out in anger before the
authorities are able to introduce some type of emergency feeding
plans. In fact, the desperate rioting mobs, paradoxically, will be the
main impediment to delivering the food. FEMA might rescue one or
a few cities, but will be impotent if the food supply crisis is widespread
and many cities are affected.
In normal times our urban inhabitants are free to come and go at
will. But cities are usually divided into manageable sections by
highways, railroad trunk lines, rivers, ravines, steep mountainsides
and other manmade or geographical features. The authorities, or those
living in areas adjoining the boroughs experiencing starvation, may
or may not permit the free entry or passage of hungry refugees. If the
authorities or suburban vigilantes wish to stop the breakout of the
starving masses, it will have to be done with extreme force, if it can
be done at all.
Roughly speaking, these are the three alternatives facing people
who find themselves in an urban area when the outside supply of
food stops:
1. Die in place like the neglected horses, or the felines trapped in
the crazy old cat lady's house of horrors. This only happens to captive
populations, but it happens. Some armed force might be guarding the
bridges and highways around your ’hood, with strict orders to
“contain the problem.” The Warsaw Ghetto could become the model
for ultimate urban renewal and a radical rebalancing of the moocherto-
producer population ratio. As with the crazy old cat lady's putrid
house, fire may be the cleanser of choice. Again, read about The Great
Fire of Smyrna in 1922.
2. Attempt relocation too late, like the lemmings and the hippos.
This was the fate of many of the Jews in Germany, the Armenians
and Greeks in Turkey, and the Christians in the Middle East today. The human normalcy bias is so strong that it's difficult for most
people to understand, after a few peaceful generations, that bad can
go to worse and then to fatal in a few unexpected jumps. The Jews,
Armenians and Greeks all clung to the belief that things could only
get better—until it was too late to flee successfully. The Copts in
Egypt may be the next population of Christians marched into a desert
to die, while the world watches.
3. Break out, like the bamboo forest rats and the locusts in search
of more nutrition in the next valley. But don't expect to be welcomed
in the next county if you are forced into a mass refugee exodus. Instead,
you will be considered a plague of hungry locusts, and locusts
are exterminated whenever possible. When you move into the hinterland
you may find crude signs posted stating that Trespassers Will Be
Shot On Sight. Signs put up by very serious hard-eyed people with
more scoped deer rifles than EBT cards among them.
It will now be pointed out that there are more rural than urban
users of the EBT system. This may be true in absolute numbers, but
it is not important. There is a reason why the parables in this essay
focus on situations where population densities are high when the
food-rug is pulled out from under. Out in the wider country, there is
a likelihood of the former EBT user moving in with other rural kin.
Truck gardens and farmer's markets are not such a distant memory,
and arable land is plentiful. A deer or a pig might wind up over a fire.
“A country boy can survive,” to quote one modern philosopher.
But there will be no surviving within the urban death traps when
the seemingly perpetual food conveyor grinds to a halt for any of a
number of causes. The only question is, will the EBT urban plantation
slaves die in place, penned in by suburban rifle fire or other means,
or will they break out in a starving flood? Possibly even with government
help, on government buses? To be taken to whatever wire fenced
FEMA camp enclosure awaits them—or perhaps to your local
high schools as a “temporary” measure?
Either way, what an unholy mess we find ourselves in. Our urban
plantation population of EBT slaves has become a Damocles Sword
hanging above the greater society. That perpetual food conveyor had
better not experience a hiccup—for any reason—or in an eye blink
there will be unholy hell to pay. Wise citizens will carefully consider
the meta-terrain around them for future Black Swans, Black Swans
that in reality might be located at the intersections of already understood
natural phenomena and the unintended consequences of social
experimentation gone disastrously wrong.
The final moral of the story: Don't live in—or near—a densely
populated enclosure where all the food is brought in from outside,
even if today the exit doors are all open. (And now I will be called
the usual pejoratives by the usual politically correct imbeciles, who
would condemn a child for noticing that a too-swiftly receding ocean
tide might be a tsunami warning. “Don't ever mention tsunamis!” the
imbeciles will shout at the child. “It is forbidden! Tabu! Haram! If
you mention tsunamis, you will cause them!” Wise people ignore
these imbeciles and press on with learning, and warning others.)
[This is an excerpt from The Bracken Collection, Essays and Short Fiction. It’s available directly from me in printed format, or from Amazon in print and e-book form. Here’s my website, EnemieEnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com, and here’s my Amazon author page.
With so many Malthusian crazies out there this is not just a musing from Matt. The oligarchic billionaires at places like the WEF and think tanks want to reduce the population and rave like lunatics about farming causing too much pollution. Be alert!
I am using an often repeated number used in the count of civilians who rose to fight the Brits in the Revolutionary War but I would estimate that 3 % number remains true for today. It will be 3% that are the doers and thinkers and creators that will lead the fight to survive against the tyranny that currently is choking us into submission. The remainder will perish or be the Quislings. My wife and I are in our 70’s but well prepared. I have all the munitions and stores to last 3 months and can trap and fish to supplement food stocks. But essential meds, of which I require to survive will run out after 3 months should we live under siege. And so we may be better off than most in austiere conditions reality says we will not outlive conditions experienced in the Siege of Sarajevo.
And Americans should learn about that Siege and the experiences of those that survived it. It will save some of their pitiful hedonist lives.