Why Iran can outlast America in this war

This map provides yet more evidence there was no long-game strategy behind Trump's decision to launch the catastrophic 28 Feb sneak attack on Iran. The entire world may crash into a great depression, and even famine, but island nations will suffer the most. And island nations are many of our most important allies.

The INSTC cuts shipping time from Russia to India in normal times, and during the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, it still connects Iran to all of Asia.

The North-South route also means Russia is less dependent on sending ships through the Baltic, North Sea, North Atlantic and Mediterranean, which are NATO areas of operation. The Caspian Sea is not.

Even at low water levels, the Caspian permits ships to transit directly from Russia to Iran. Transport aircraft can also fly directly from Russia to Iran without crossing hostile air space.

If the war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no doubt Iran will suffer. But Iran is the 5th richest country in the world based on its own natural resources, and it’s connected by the Caspian Sea and railroads to both Russia and China.

On the other hand, America’s allies, the UK, Ireland, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand are island nations, and the closure of the SoH is an absolute catastrophe for them. South Korea is a “virtual island” because it’s only connected to North Korea.

Under the British and later the American empires, the “Great Game” meant using shifting diplomacy, naval power, and temporary alliances to prevent Russia from ever becoming the dominant Eurasian power.

For example, the British fought against Russia in the Crimean War, and were later allied with Russia in WW1, when Germany was threatening to become a superstate that might control European Russia.

Since the end of WW2, an American diplomatic imperative was to prevent an alliance between Russia and China. With our support of Ukraine, and now our war against Iran, we have driven them together, and Iran will benefit from its land connections to them, while America’s island-nation allies will suffer enormously.

In the emerging Great Energy World War, America will cast aside old alliances and throw its friends under the bus to gain an advantage. Have no doubt of this.

For example, inexpensive Russian LNG going to Europe via Germany posed the threat of creating a potent European-Russian economic bloc, so the USA sabotaged the Nord Stream Pipeline in 2022. (Yes, we did it.) YouTube video link.

Our island-nation allies must understand how ruthless America under Trump can and will be to serve its own advantage. Witness the recent gloating about empty tankers from around the world rushing to “The Gulf of America” to load up with Texas and Louisiana petroleum and LNG.

But this puts America in the position of a mafia boss who controls a small town, and whose son owns one of the only two gas stations. The mafia boss sent an arsonist to blow up the other gas station, and now he controls the only one in town. This might provide the mafia boss a temporary advantage, but his customers will hate him, and they will work hard behind his back to find other sources of gasoline and diesel, and to curtail his power, in order to prevent future misdeeds.

To return from the analogy, by Trump’s mafia-like actions, we are driving the world into the arms of the Chinese and Russians. This will mean the demise of the petrodollar, the end of the USD as the world reserve currency, and all the terrible consequences that will follow like night follows day.

America’s island-nation allies will be suffering economic and social pain far beyond anything experienced in the USA. Just off stage, they are putting enormous pressure on Trump to end his misbegotten undeclared war of choice. If Trump cares about these island nation allies remaining in America’s orbit, he will act accordingly. If he does not, they will act in their own interests, and make their own way in the world, realigning with Iran, Russia and China.

Bracken—Out.

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