67 Comments
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Arthur Sido's avatar

More profits for oil companies doesn't change the fact that I am paying significantly more for gas at the pump, the main expense for my business. The extra I spent for fuel comes out of my disposable income. Now multiply that times 300 million people and the ramifications get pretty serious.

Jack Lawson's avatar

Excellent analysis Matt!

Spot ON.

Jack Lawson

steven ferretti's avatar

Now you can buy more oil from the good USA 🇺🇸

Pit's avatar

Tough guy Trump with all his bravado and bluster has only proven one thing to the world. The United States is the 90-pound weakling on missile beach. Pull out and leave Israel to police their own neighborhood.

Luke's avatar

Great post Matt, I was pumping out your Shaheed Drone post with the LNG terminal situation a lot yesterday. I especially enjoyed sending to the “Myopic” ones. 😉

My friend just sent me some 5D chess nonsense. It’s a time buyer and like the Diver and Eel analogy (great one btw) time is something the Zionists do not have. The world is becoming aware of their games. You have to be pretty brainwashed to not see it by now.

Anyhow, I told my friend to find me a bet on Polymarket. “Will Nuclear Weapons Be Used in 2026.” I will go ahead and place that bet. I admit to feeling a bit relieved after the Ceasefire was announced. I have this weird little hangup about my POTUS talking about killing off an entire civilization. I’m funny like that I guess. But I was also VERY skeptical this situation could end basically understanding the Zionist’s cover is being exposed.

This is NOT going to end well for anyone I’m afraid. Or at least until someone is desperately crying for mercy.

Mr Smith's avatar

Heard through the grapevine that the US is scrounging every THAAD in the US and shipping them out through Jacksonville and air assets.

The Chicoms may be sending manpads to Iran, Iran probably already have received them in my opinion.

As Matt stated, can’t wait when the SEALS, board a Chicoms vessel in international waters. Talk about escalation, that would do it.

Felix's avatar

All of the downsides, pitfalls and risks listed are real. And big heapum considerable.

Yet while warnings of this adventurism abound, I never seem to see their authors saying much (if anything) about the Iranian drive to acquire home-grown nuke=tipped-ballistic-missiles.

Lots of lip service from previous Learneds who stated Iran should not be allowed nukes - as the world witnessed their steady and determined drive towards that very end.

Further, and leaving "the Jooos" out of this just for a minute, the Arab states surrounding Iran want us to defang the Iranian tiger. Is this not true?

So. Yes. This Trumpian Adventurism could place us and the world in an unmitigated shit show, no question there. BUT WHAT ABOUT the Iranian nukes? Either they were going to be an even bigger problem down the road or they weren't. And if they _were_, what other paths could have replaced the one we're on now?

Matt Bracken's avatar

Do you wish we had undertake an major land war to prevent North Korea from getting the bomb circa 2005? They were also described as madmen who would use nukes if they had them. How many American KIA would have been worth it? Would you have been willing to occupy North Korea for 20+ years? Note: Iran is 14X bigger than North Korea, with 4x its population.

Richard's avatar

The Norks are dynastic and the first rule of dynasties is to preserve themselves. It is odd to have a communist dynasty but that is what they are.

Felix's avatar

No, no such wish at all. The Kim's and China's interests and disincentives were/are different than those of the Theocrats and IRGC. Horses and cows, cats and dogs different. But now that Korea is brough up, why not include Pakistan or better yet Russia? Whataboutisms have their place sometimes but in this arena I think not. AND, as noted, once again, my questioning critics has garnered another response sans threat evaluation and/or better/different method of dealing with it.

FTR, I am NOT some frothing neocon and I do NOT take loss of life lightly. While I thank God I've never had to kill anyone, I also pray that He would guide me forward if it was required.

Matt Bracken's avatar

Back in the early 2000s, the Norks were described just as the Iranians are today, frothing madmen. You are rewriting history to suit your narrative, making them out to have always been calmly rational.

What evidence do you have that today's Iranians are frothing madmen? They did not start this war with sneak-attack assassination missile strikes during negotiations. We did, with Israel. Missile strikes where entire buildings, including families and neighbors, were destroyed to kill one Iranian leader or potential leader. In the first wave of strikes, our careless targeting killed 170+ grade school girls. Who are the madmen here?

So why didn't we go to war against Russia, China, Pakistan or India to prevent them getting the bomb? Any of them? Do they act more, or less rationally, now that they have nukes?

How about Israel? In that case, we "left the door open for them" to steal enough enriched uranium to create their own bombs.

But for Iran, you will go to total war with a nation 10X bigger than South Vietnam, with 6X its population, more mountainous than 6 Colorados, and in the meantime, throw the entire globe into a great depression, and send poor nations into famine.

And beginning it with a disgraceful and perfidious sneak attack, like the Germans in 1939 or the Japanese in 1941.

Felix's avatar

I am shocked, honestly... such hyperbole and "putting words in my mouth"...

But, OK, point-by-point:

1) I don't have a narrative any more than I have questions... and who sez I ever considered Norks to be "calmly rational"? I did say they had motives/constraints that differ from Iran's though.

2) "sneak attack during negotiations"... yup Trump/America owns that. As if "negotiations" were or ever have going to stop Iranian drive to nuclear weaponry? In your guidance/participation in Seal Team missions, did activities follow any "warnings" to anyone? Loops back in my mind, to the seminal question: what was the threat, it's immediacy, it's scope... safest, most effective approach for dealing with it?

3) ..."careless targeting killed 170+ grade school girls". Now that is a stinker, yes. Joined-at-the-hip to the tactic of placing all manner of weaponry and high value infrastructure in proximity to innocent lives - in effect, using human shields? As if we should surround our army bases, air force bases, Virginia Beach, with schools for girls to stay the hand of lethal enemies?

4) Not sure what the past has to do with the price of rice where "why didn't we go to war over nukes with"... pick your country. All models fit the same mold? From past thru present and into the future?

5) Israel. I do not know any details of their nuke program but am given to understand that they possess an arsenal.

6) So size matters? Well yes, of course it does. Meaning we only use kinetics on tiny ones but leave big ones alone? Easy peasy, that one. Repetitively, I ask for discussion of threat and the list of remedies, don't want to quarrel over "International Law", etc. Why? Because the issue of global depression and famine ARE in play. And the "pay me now or pay me later" question seems to get lost somewhere between hatreds for Trump and the well-founded fears of what can go right, what can go horribly wrong.

Asgard2208's avatar

So you're concerned that Iran might get nukes. Fair enough. But Iran has a long-declared fatwa against possessing them, something all US intel agencies have declared is still continuing.

Iran has not attacked anyone in over 250 years. It was attacked by Iraq with full western support, including chemical weapons which we provided. Sure, it supports the resistance in Lebanon, but so should we, IMO, against Israel's endless egregious attacks which repeatedly target civilian infrastructure - these are war crimes, BTW. That's called the Darhiya Directive. Google that one as well.

But why not be concerned about Israel's arsenal? After all Israel has declared its Samson Option in the event of cataclysmic defeat: i.e., it will nuke the capital cities of its neighbors and a ton of western nations as well. Google it.

That's the same psycho nation that is working to achieve the Yinon Plan of occupation and domination of lots of territory outside the borders of Israel.

Frankly, the US and Israel are a far bigger threat to world peace than Iran, a civilizational state that gave us human rights 3000 years ago - the stele is in the British Museum.

Zorost's avatar

How do we prevent them from doing so?

They had agreed to inspections, and were compliant with nuclear agreements as far as we could tell. We've bombed the shit out of them several times, proclaiming their nuclear program was done, only to claim we needed to bomb it again. Their leader said it was a sin to get nukes. Then we killed that leader and made the rest of their leaders fear for their lives unless they get nukes. All we've done is show Iran and the rest of the world leaders that if you don't have nukes you are 1 NYT headline away from being killed in a surprise attack along with your family.

Luke's avatar

The sad fact is we (myself included) were all too brainwashed by right wing Zionist media to understand the Obama Iran deal was NOT horrible. Queue the neocon talking point of a sunset clause yada yada. Truth is we (again myself included) clapped like seals when Trump (under Zionist command) tore the goddamn thing up. “That’s our Big Tough President” we said.

Here’s a thought; maybe we should quit listening to the Zionists altogether. Frankly and at this point, Iran could blow those mother fuckers right off map for all I care.

If this sounds harsh I would like to remind you that a good portion of our government has been hijacked by them. While most of the candidates are paid for by AIPAC contributions, many at the top have been secured by more resourceful means (Epstein Scheme).

Israel must end before it ends us because ultimately that’s how the story ends. We will just be the last ones eaten.

Felix's avatar

If one dislikes Trump enough, it's easy to hug the fairy tale of inspections being free and thorough, and that 60 % enrichment was just an innocent overshoot for stuff never intended in weaponry. I see this often. Heck, them poor Mullahs, they was just like us folk until we started being mean to them, etc, etc, etc.

Zorost's avatar

As I said, 'as far as we could tell.' Now answer my question, if we can't tell from inspections, how do we prevent them from developing nukes without bombing them every year or 2? Which leads to all other nations realizing they need nukes ASAP, as well as draining our treasury even more.

They aren't like us, but they also were minding their own business until we started being mean to them. This isn't up for debate, it's part of the accepted historical record.

Felix's avatar

"Minding their own business"? How does one square that statement with exporting/supplying terror? And starting with the holding of our embassy staff hostage, chanting "death to America", etc... which to me doesn't sound like thet're just kidding, not to mention helping kill Americans in Iraq? Please, this is not an attack, it's an honest question. If it tests the limits of your conclusions or enlightens me, all OK.

Zorost's avatar

Read history, then talk.

Start with the CIA/MI6 coup in 1953, and include us financing Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War, including allowing them to use chemical weapons. End with how Iran was playing along, then Trump/Israel decided to claim nukes were imminent and attacking Iran during negotiations.

What terror? Helping locals fight back against Israel in places that isn't Israel or the US isn't terrorism. The biggest exporter of terrorism is our good friend and ally Saudi Arabia.

Felix's avatar

History. As a spectator or participant? Read what the victors had to say? Argue over who is the biggest exporter of terror?

Arguing not for me, happy to leave most of that to others.

But back to Iranian enrichment of uranium, its intent, progress, our ability to accurately assess its scope and achievement...

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)...

Some "history" that does weigh in my thinking, perhaps not so much in others? Things like Iran removing IAEA cameras, restricting access, etc are relevant.

So if "details" and "history" matters, I offer this link and down into the rabbit hole one goes:

https://gemini.google.com/share/57fcfb0cdc7c

Richard's avatar

Iraq was a Soviet proxy, not ours.

Richard's avatar

They have killed thousands of Americans through their proxies.

Zorost's avatar

I doubt it.

But let's say it's true. So what? We occupy shit holes on the other side of the world so global bankers can profit, and the natives get mad. This is why we shouldn't let global bankers run our country, not why we should double down on blowing up shit holes then letting the refugees who hate us emigrate here.

CHUCKY's avatar

Richtard is back!

Sage Alfields's avatar

Iran likely already has nuclear weapons.

Rick Reese's avatar

Thx Matt

this's avatar

As Michael Yon said in his podcast about 2 weeks ago, sometimes Incompetence (being 'dumb') is a strategy. Although in this case it does appear coincidental on the part of Trump and Hegseth, they are bringing in a global financial crisis a little faster than it was going to happen anyway. The bankers don't care, they may like it.

The overall trajectory of the US empire has often been speculated to be the super cop that gets depleted while handing off the perceived world order to someone else. Sure, it's likely to be China, but a new version of the UN - a technocratic one with digital control is itching to formally take over. The Trump billionaire cabinet + Musk is all about Technocracy. As long as the people are powerless, and morality takes a distant backseat - everything is probably going to plan. Meanwhile you can still buy a Trump watch, or watch him at the WWE venue (bread and circuses).

Marc Simard's avatar

Personally I am pro-Iran. Flawed nation? Sure, which isnt. How much of those flaws are a result of western meddling?

They have a back story, not always nice. Like I said theyre flawed, like most heros; but theyre the only heros we have.

Bruce K's avatar

Trump can easily blockade not only the straits but every Iranian port without risking a single ship. Mine the straits and the entrance to every port. Mines can be deployed via aircraft or submarine so no risk to any surface ships. Announce to the world the these waters are mined and insurance carriers world wide will refuse to insure any ships sailing in these waters. If Trump takes the additional steps of bombing every railroad and major highway bridge into Iran he effectively cuts off any major income or aide stream into the country. Bombing airport runways would totally isolate the regime. Simple. No income and the regime falls eventually.

Mr Smith's avatar

Iran can also return the favor and destroy every port, refinery and pipeline within the range of its missiles and drones of the countries that we are suppose to protect in the region. Also Iran can target and destroy the water supply of every country that depends on desalination plants for everyday needs. Things can escalate quickly. Everyone has had a chance to reload.

Bruce K's avatar

Ok. So what’s your solution? Sit back and allow these crazies to extort the world and acquire a nuke?

Mr Smith's avatar

I understood Trump said we destroyed their nuclear abilities 6 months ago. So what are we doing attacking Iran now for? Though their nuclear program was destroyed? Now Iran has the capability again according to who?

My solution, stop believing the propaganda. On all 3 sides. Iran, US and Israel.

Bruce K's avatar

So you think Trump and his advisors went to war on propaganda? He disrupted 20% of the world’s oil supply based on propaganda? That he had no clear intelligence that Iran retained materials and capability to resume bomb making? So if this is all just propaganda, why do you think he attacked Iran? Just for shits and giggles? Before you answer, just remember that Iran’s negotiators admitted to having over 400 kg of 60% enriched material and refused to limit their ability to further enrichment. And there is zero necessity of having 60% material for any other purpose that making a bomb.

CHUCKY's avatar

He attacked Iran because that was his side of the bargain that got all his (admittedly bogus) legal troubles to go away and got him back into the WH. They probably have plenty of Epstein-related shenanigans on him, too, but I think the above is the real driving factor.

CHUCKY's avatar

Watch more Fox News, Bruce. You're not propagandized enough with the israeli line of bullshit.

JB's avatar

How old are you?

james's avatar

Nukes are an 80 year old technology. Older than television. How much longer are we going to patrol the world to prevent countries from building an ancient technology. By 2045, most countries will probably have them anyway. If their 8th grade science classes don't build them, AI will.

Zorost's avatar

And then is replaced by a regime that hates and fears us even more than the last one.

JWM_IN_VA's avatar

2 Major problems:

1: Blockade of a foreign port is an act of War. Congress will have to weigh in.

2. Interdiction of foreign ships on international waters is... Piracy.

John Schrauth's avatar

I saw a report today that Saudi Arabia is "hosting" Pakistan's squadron of F-16's configured for delivery of nuclear weapons. One may recall there is an agreement of some sort whereby Pakistan agreed to provide the kingdom with a nuclear umbrella.

Vince Agnelli's avatar

"and the beat goes on. Yeah, the beat goes on..."

I had wondered a year or so ago as to who or WHAT was generating these crazy swings in the direction of foreign policy. That translates into crazy moves by our military. First, it's "erase their civilization in two weeks" and then that got pulled back and now it's a move out of the Mahon Doctrine. That's all we need is to see some crazy nut job of a tanker skipper, put one right into the side of a carrier and then what? 5,000 sailors roast with a few million barrels of oil?

Great observation Matt. But all of your observations have been spot on and directly from proven history.

So, is this gameplan coming from a Remington Rand type of corporation's super-computer or are these plans being drawn up from copies of the Mahon Doctrine (of which I thought they stopped teaching at Annapolis years ago because it was too much masculine toxicity?)

It's not a surprise to me that the GOP is also a club in name only as they have allowed my state to be taken over by a Bolshevik revolution and pretend lawyers are trying to keep the rank and file still in their seats, the same way they did with Obumma Care. Lie, after lie after silly ass lie and we fall for it all, every time.

What really pisses me off, is that so many of us understand this merry-go-round of globalism that we have to waste our time, resources and transfer of wealth to a bunch of greedy bastards.

I apologies for not maintaining a more gentlemanly vocabulary. I'm just getting tired of the Republicans pissing down my back and telling me its raining.

Yours in liberty,

Vince

JB's avatar

Thank you Matt.

No one can be this stupid…can they?

Is this planned?

An excuse to default on our commitments?

God help us.

Troy Klingler's avatar

This is Iranian propaganda.

JB's avatar

Wow, just wow.