If we go to war against Iran, the world economy will crash

In the event of a kinetic war against Iran, all petroleum tankers will be blocked from leaving the Persian Gulf, not only Iranian ships. Iran has hundreds of mobile truck-mounted anti-ship cruise missiles hidden in rugged mountainous terrain on a wide arc north of Oman and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This arc is 300 miles wide and 100 miles deep. Iranian missile forces may well act under standing orders to attack all shipping once an American attack on Iran begins. Even a total decapitation strike against Iranian communications will not prevent these standing orders from being carried out. Iran will be determined to share their pain across the region and around the world.

Iranian anti-ship missile forces will not fire all their rockets at the beginning of this conflict. Instead, missile teams will have separate standing orders. Teams will be instructed to scout for shipping and fire at anything in the strait on different timelines after the war begins. Their goal will be to prevent the resumption of shipping for weeks or even months. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards in charge of these missiles will not care about the pain being inflicted upon civilians in Teheran. They will follow their orders with the dedication of Japanese holdouts in the Pacific.

Air power alone will not be able to discover and destroy hundreds of missile trucks hidden in thousands of locations in this mountainous terrain. On the very last days of Operation Desert Storm in 1991, Iraq was still firing Scud missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel. The giant Scuds had to raised to vertical and loaded with liquid fuel before they could be fired. We had entire air armadas out searching the Iraqi desert for them. And still the Iraqis were able to launch and fire Scuds up to the last days of the conflict.

So forget about American air power alone finding and destroying hundreds of hidden solid-fuel mobile anti-ship missiles that can roll out of a cave and fire in just minutes.

To root out hundreds of these mobile anti-ship missiles “the hard way” using infantry troops would require a land invasion greater than Normandy and Okinawa combined.

The Battle of Okinawa holds some lessons. Okinawa is only 463 square miles is size, a small fraction of the land area controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Yet it took the combined American Navy, Army and Marine Corps three months to subdue Okinawa, at a cost of 12,000 American and 100,000 Japanese lives.

We obviously don’t have the force structure to even contemplate such an action in Iran, so rule that out. Therefore, we must assume that Iran will be capable of attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for an undetermined length of time. To plan otherwise would be incredibly stupid. “Hope is not a plan.”

Any naval ships or tankers attempting to run the Strait of Hormuz during wartime will face a formidable array of Iranian missiles. During a state of war, insurance will be canceled. Tankers will only attempt to transit the strait if they are reflagged as American ships and escorted by U.S. Navy warships. But will this be successful?

Grok estimates the number of Iranian anti-ship missiles:

“Iran’s total missile arsenal, including ballistic and cruise missiles, is often cited as exceeding 3,000, with a significant portion dedicated to anti-ship capabilities. While precise counts of mobile land-based anti-ship missiles are not publicly confirmed, analysts suggest Iran has hundreds of these systems. For instance, assessments from sources like the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Iran Watch indicate that Iran’s anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) inventory could range from several hundred to over a thousand, factoring in both deployed units and reserves. Mobile launchers, such as truck-mounted transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), are a key feature of this arsenal, providing flexibility and survivability. A rough estimate, based on Iran’s coastal defense strategy and production capacity, might place the number of mobile land-based ASCMs in the range of 200 to 500 operational units, though this is speculative without official Iranian disclosure.”

The ongoing missile war in the Red Sea gives us some hints about what to expect. Yes, the U.S. military can kick the hell out of the Houthis in Yemen, but this is no real test when compared to what we will face if we go to war with Iran.

We Might Have Just Seen the World's First Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Attack

Link to story

Note the name on the back of this missile, written in English for us: Hormuz 1.

Iran also has plenty of the older subsonic Ra’ads, their version of the Chinese Silkworm. My goal is not to provide an exhaustive rundown of Iranian anti-ship missiles, but to make the point that the Strait of Hormuz will become a shooting gallery when a kinetic war against Iran begins.

Then I asked Grok how much China, Japan and Korea rely on Persian Gulf oil.

In my opinion, any military planners who assume we can destroy a wide range of strategic military targets inside Iran, from their nuclear to their ballistic missile programs, without suffering an extreme economic blowback, is a damn fool.

But then, we have seen a lot of extremely stupid military decision in recent years, such as the assumption that we could weaken Russia by engaging in a proxy war with them using Ukraine as our conduit. Our Pentagon brainiacs also thought the doomed 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive could reach Crimea, and that the failed 2024 Kursk invasion would force Russia to negotiate an end to the war on terms that were favorable to Ukraine. Wrong, wrong and wrong.

Not to even mention our utter fiasco in Afghanistan.

These are the same brainiac politicians, generals and admirals who are now advocating for a shooting war against Iran. Nobody is fooled by our calling this process a “negotiation.” A “negotiation” with a gun held to your temple is simple extortion. Iran’s missile programs are not in violation of any treaty. If we attack Iran, in an attempt to neutralize their external military capabilities on behalf of Israel, the entire world is going to suffer the consequences when the petroleum stops flowing out of the Persian gulf.

A final note: beware the push for some contrived “Gulf of Tonkin Incident,” or even a false-flag “Liberty” attack being used as a casus belli for war with Iran. Our naval and air force assets cannot remain in the region poised for war indefinitely. They will have to be either used or withdrawn before summer.

Bracken Out.

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